PSE-Lab just published a new paper together with the heads of Resuscitation wards and intensive care units of two important Lombardy hospitals.

The paper models for prediction purposes, monitoring, and early warning detection the Covid-19 pandemic. It is published in “Computers and Chemical Engineering” an Elsevier journal:

A simplified math approach to predict ICU beds and mortality rate for hospital emergency planning under Covid-19 pandemic

Davide Manca, Dario Caldiroli, Enrico Storti

DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.compchemeng.2020.106945

Abstract

The different stages of Covid-19 pandemic can be described by two key-variables: ICU patients and deaths in hospitals. We propose simple models that can be used by medical doctors and decision makers to predict the trends on both short-term and long-term horizons. Daily updates of the models with real data allow forecasting some key indicators for decision-making (an Excel file in the Supplemental material allows computing them). These are beds allocation, residence time, doubling time, rate of renewal, maximum daily rate of change (positive/negative), halfway points, maximum plateaus, asymptotic conditions, and dates and time intervals when some key thresholds are overtaken. Doubling time of ICU beds for Covid-19 emergency can be as low as 2-3 days at the outbreak of the pandemic. The models allow identifying the possible departure of the phenomenon from the predicted trend and thus can play the role of early warning systems and describe further outbreaks.

Keywords: Covid-19; ICU patients; deaths; emergency planning; resource allocation; ICU beds prediction.

You can take advantage of a 50-day period to download the paper for free till August 9th, 2020.