Two short communications were published recently on ESA website, the European Society of Anesthesiology:

Analysis of the number growth of ICU patients with Covid-19 in Italy and Lombardy

UPDATED TO MARCH 17, 6 PM CET

and

Dynamics of ICU patients and deaths in Italy and Lombardy due to Covid-19

UPDATED TO MARCH 30, 6 PM CET

Davide Manca 

The communications are written for anesthesiologists and resuscitation doctors and reports a number of hints and recommended actions for the Covid-19 emergency planning.

The reports take just three and six minutes of reading and are written in plain English with no Mathematics. Supplemental materials are also available here and here. They show qualitatively and quantitatively the time evolution (i.e. dynamics) of the phenomenon (the number of ICU patients and deaths due to Covid-19 both in Italy and in Lombardy).

ICU (Intensive Care Unit) patients and the number of ICU beds for Covid-19 emergency are of utmost importance in this very critical moment. Hospitals have to dynamically adapt to the tsunami wave of patients requiring different levels of treatment up to intensive care (and sub-intensive care). The reallocation of hospital wards to Covid-19 treatment has to happen fast, in a matter of days. Every day counts.

Understanding the dynamics of the number of deaths respect to ICU patients allows understanding the time delay between them and explaining why social-distancing measures should cover a rather long time interval to show their efficacy.

I want to personally thank all the Anesthetists and Resuscitation doctors of Lombardia and Italy together with intensive care experts and surgeons who helped me in understanding the complexity of the phenomenon. They deserve the wholehearted appreciation of all of us. These heroes are Dario Caldiroli, Enrico Storti, Piergiorgio Villani, Francesco Trotta, Giovanni Mistraletti. Special thanks go to Edoardo De Robertis who put me in contact with ESA. See the short communication for further details on their affiliation.